Week 40

Happy New Year!!
A new year means a new beginning. This is the beginning of a new decade, one which will have far-reaching consequences for the next few decades. At work and personally, it was marked by a series of predictions that I wanted to make as per my understanding of the world. While I completely agree with Bill Gates about our inability to predict changes in either the short or long term, this exercise forced me to think longer and a little harder and to bring together things that I have read and thought about in recent times.
I think I will also ask my son to write down his predictions for this decade. It will be an exercise for him to think in a little longer timeframe.
Anyways, the following are my predictions for the decade:

15 predictions for the decade

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1. Currency will move from a fiat currency to being benchmarked to an asset base - not necessarily gold alone, but a basket of metals/cryptocurrency/(rare earth metals?) - some benchmark that will retain the flexibility to be stretched, even though will put some constraints on freely-printing money
2. A new economy will arise as the world leader supported by Europe - its loyalty will change from the US to the new power, and that will give it a relative jump in world standing - by remaining constant also, sometimes you tend to outperform
3. China will see the rise of spiritualism over consumerism - social upheaval followed by the rise of new “preachers” who promote detachment - go back to Confucianism
4. Corporates are going to see consolidation and become more powerful - lead to larger gross profits, but in a bid to stay relevant to the new generation, they will keep their social and climate commitments
5. Organic food will become more mainstream - more efficient supply chain will ensure that the reduction in productivity of the farm will be offset by the savings of less losses
6. Drones will be useful for difficult-to-reach deliveries - will help cities become less congested, maybe reversing urbanization
7. Cost of healthcare will come down significantly
8. UPI will become a significant payment method around the world
9. Governments will take the hard decision to convert large amounts of debt into equity; reset their own sovereign debt through higher growth and lower nominal yields
10. Political prediction: Reordering of the global order through domestic/international aggressions - persecution of Asians in developed countries, large scale conflagration in the second half of the decade
11. India: 2024 - BJP, 2029 - Coalition of parties, Nifty targets - 2020 (14,500), 2023 (6,500), 2026 (21,500), 2030 (15,000)
12. Higher taxation should lead to normalization of higher gross profits of larger corporates
13. All public/long-distance transportation modes will become primarily electric; personal vehicle ownership will be at multi-decade lows
14. The number of countries winning medals in the Olympics will hit multi-decade lows
15. Consumption of leisure and experiences will grow exponentially in this decade

I hope to come back and see how right/wrong I was a decade later. Hopefully, I would have also helped my son understand the value of thinking from a long term perspective.